Brash claims for voter support are just that - they don't add up

A classic case of misrepresentation of polling statistics for political manipulation and self-advancement has surfaced in New Zealand . Former New Zealand National (Conservative) Party leader Don Brash has leaked some very suspect polling results as part of his attempt to take over the leadership of the ACT Party (Right Wing), which he is not even a member of. In fact he is still a member of the National Party!

The ACT party is in coalition with the National party, the Maori party, and the United Future party, forming the current New Zealand government, headed by National leader and Prime Minister John Key. Key rolled Brash after Brash failed to unseat the previous Labour government.

ACT has one electorate seat, Epsom, held by ACT leader Rodney Hide, and under the New Zealand proportional representation system has a total of just five out of the total of 122 seats in Parliament.

Brash has been gathering support for his leadership bid, including failed Auckland Supercity mayoral candidate John Banks (also a former National party Cabinet Minister). Specifically they have been targeting Hide and his Epsom seat.

Three polls of the electorate (no sample data available, nor the polling organisation) "commissioned by a long-standing admirer of former National leader Dr Brash" have been conducted to date, though this is the first data released.

The poll asked "If a candidate were standing in Epsom with the aim of being a coalition partner for National would you prefer that candidate to be?" The options were John Banks, Rodney Hide (sitting member and leader of the ACT party)  or "would not vote for either".

First problem - the question asks who the respondent would "prefer that candidate to be". Not who they would vote for, but who should be on the ballot paper. But the choices include an option "would not vote for either".

Now enter the dodgy results of the latest poll: Banks 35%, Hide 14%, "Don't knows" 24%. Total of 73%. What happened to the other 27%? Are they actually those who responded "would not vote for either"?

Clearly 51% don't want either Banks or Hide!

And who are the 24% "Don't knows"? They weren't an option in the question!

Wonderfully accurate - or is that woefully (in)accurate - polling and disclosure for a man who wishes to lead a party he doesn't belong to, and who has pretentions to be Minister of Finance.

The Merriam-Webster online dictionary defines Brash as:

• heedless of the consequences
• done in haste without regard for consequences
• lacking restraint and discernment
• aggressively self-assertive 

As the Moody Blues once said:
"And we decide which the fact, and which the illusion"